Mebane Analysis of 2024 Pennsylvania Election (electiontruthalliance.org)
Overview & Context
This working paper by Dr. Walter R. Mebane Jr. (University of Michigan), hosted by the Election Truth Alliance, presents a statewide eforensics statistical analysis of the 2024 presidential election in Pennsylvania.
Methodology & Scope
- Analyzed 7,040,360 votes across 67 counties and 9,157 precincts.
- Used a finite-mixture model to categorize precincts by levels of irregularity: no fraud, incremental fraud, and extreme fraud.
- Distinguished between malevolent vote manipulation and legitimate variations or strategic voting behavior.
Key Findings
- 225,440 votes identified as possibly fraudulent; notably larger than Trump’s 120,266 vote margin.
- Of these, 111,088 were classified with high confidence as malevolent manipulation.
- Using a more conservative model, results showed:
- 210,392 potentially fraudulent votes, of which 88,600 were malevolent.
- The most conservative estimate still flagged 25,374 votes as likely manipulated.
Interpretation & Caveats
- The analysis suggests a high probability of meaningful vote manipulation altering the outcome or closely affecting the margin in Pennsylvania.
- The report emphasizes that statistical evidence alone is not definitive proof; only comparisons of paper ballots to electronic records can confirm fraud.
- The primary value of the eforensics approach is its ability to highlight precincts and counties warranting further investigation via hand audits or audits.
Citation
OpenAI. (2025). Summary of “Eforensics Analysis of the 2024 PA Presidential Election” by Dr. Walter R. Mebane Jr. Generated by ChatGPT (GPT‑4). Retrieved from chat.openai.com